What are the real risks around US election night uncertainty?
A breakdown of the differing views
The big risk in November is that we won't know the results of the US election on election night. It's an idea that has been percolating for awhile but with Trump's reluctance to endorse a peaceful transition of power, it took on extra importance this week.
USDJPY swings down and up between ....well swing areas
Support at 105.239 -105.289. Resistance at 105.537-105.60
The USDJPY has swung down and up today. The first move in the Asian session was initially higher with the 105.537 level (low of 105.537 to 105.60 - see red numbered area) stalling that swing run higher.
The low for the week comes in at 1.16258
The EURUSD is down testing the lows for the day/the low from yesterday/the low for the week. The low for the week (and yesterday) reached 1.16258. The low today just reached to 1.16268. A move below should open the downside for more probing.
US August prelim durable goods orders +0.4% vs +1.4% expected
US durable goods orders for August
- was +11.4%
- Durables ex transportation +0.4% vs +1.0% expected
- Prior ex transportation +2.6%
- Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.9% (revised to +2.5%)
Don't be fooled by the headline, core orders were strong in August with an upward revision.
The NZD is the strongest while the EUR is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
The USD is marginally higher. It's Friday.
It's Friday! That can mean a lot of things but with all the uncertainty from Covid, to elections, to will there be a transition from elections, to new stimulus or no new stimulus, to Brexit, etc. the volatility meter could be all over the place. The morning snapshot shows
Durable goods orders and more Fedspeak are on the US agenda
Durable goods orders coming up next
Markets are in a sour mood once again with S&P 500 futures down 10 points to erase yesterday's gain.
The risk on the is from durable goods orders at the bottom of the hour. The August prelim report is forecast to show a 1.4% rise along with a 0.8% climb
Risk aversion grips the market ahead of North American trading
It is turning into a full risk-off swing in the market now
The dollar is firming across the board as such, with risk assets elsewhere also taking a hit. Oil is down 1% and gold is down by 0.6% on the session currently.
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